Winter Patriot Community Blog

The day after the shooting down of their Su24 bomber by Turkey, Russia announced that it was positioning the missile cruiser, Moskva, off the northern end of the Latakia coast of Syria. This meant that the Moskva was closest to the area the bomber was shot down in and also closest it could get to the Incirlik airbase in Turkey that houses the US Air Force jets including F16's and F15's. The Moskva has an array of missiles and electronic warfare devises that enables it to provide a secure cover for the Russian Aerospace Force operating out of Latakia.

Russia also announced that it would shoot down anything approaching their aircraft. Subsequent to this, Russia flew in S400 missile batteries which can intercept and take down any jet or missile any of the NATO forces might fire at Syria or the Russian forces.

Russia had declared a de facto 'no-fly zone' for anyone other than the Syrian Air Force. Neither Turkey nor the US has ventured into the skies of Syria since then. They have contented themselves with flying over Iraq looking for sand hills and the odd piece of Iraqi infrastructure to bomb. The Turks and the Americans have shown themselves to be totally treacherous and are no longer to be tolerated. Russia cannot put its forces at risk and allow a repeat of the Su24 downing.

I think it logical and likely that within the next few days, Russia and Syria will formally announce the imposition of the 'no-fly zone' over the total sovereign territory of Syria. If Russia is to protect its forces, then this has to happen.

The Syrian Foreign Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister), Walid al-Muallem, was in Moscow meeting with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, last Friday 27th Nov. At a press conference after the meeting, they both emphasised the fault of Turkey and the sovereignty of Syria. The ministers were clearly in accord with each other and clearly decisions had been made but not announced as yet.

If the Russians are going to formally declare a 'no-fly zone', they would first have needed to 'game' all the options and that would have taken a couple of days because, clearly, they were not expecting one of their jets to be attacked by Turkey. Then, having settled on the most viable option, run it past the Syrian government. That was the likely purpose of al-Muallem's visit. He wasn't there for diplomatic niceties. He was there because decisions were being made that involved Syrian sovereignty and therefore needed the Syrian government's agreement.

Walid al-Muallem has returned to Syria and to, no doubt, closed and intense meetings with al-Assad, government and military officials. If all is agreeable, then I think we can expect the formal announcement of a 'no-fly zone' in the coming days. This will put an end to the intolerable situation where Syria and now Russia have been putting up with the Turks and the US flying over Syrian territory bombing Syrian infrastructure and dropping weapons and supplies to their mercenaries and jihadis.

The de facto 'no-fly zone' currently in place has allowed the Russians to bomb the supply lines of NATO's proxy army of terrorists more effectively because they have not had to inform the US of the flight paths where they are going to be operating and thus giving some forewarning to the Americans and therefore, most probably, the terrorists themselves.

The US obviously passed on the flight information to the Turkish Air Force (assuming it was a Turkish pilot flying a Turkish F16) regarding the Su24 that was shot down by them. The Russians can no longer afford to continue to give such sensitive information the US. Also, the Russians cannot afford to let the US fly over Syria without this information due to the large possibility of an accident occurring. The only option left for the Russians is to no longer allow the US to overfly Syria.

The terrorists are rapidly losing ground and the Turkish government is panicking at the imminent closure of the Turkish/Syrian border by the Syrian Arab Army. This will cut the terrorists' supply line and signal their end. The Russians will likely want to trap the terrorists in a 'cauldron' having, no doubt, instructed the Syrian Arab Army in its application. Russia does not want these terrorists to escape and be deployed elsewhere by NATO; perhaps to their own Caucasus territory.

There is a lot at stake. Not only will it be the end of any hope of Erdogan's territorial expansion but also the end of the US's hegemonic power in the Middle East. US expansionism, which has already halted, will reverse. The perception of the US's invincible power will have evaporated and therefore much of the support from their allies. Who knows, the European nations might even rethink the whole NATO deal. But one thing to bear in mind always is that psychopaths can never give up. They are driven. So what can we expect from them?

Turkey is already firing mortar-bombs over the border into Syria and making nonsensical assertions that they need to invade Syria to 'stop ISIS' and secure their border (by advancing their border into Syria). See Tony Cartalucci's article, URGENT: US-Turkey Edging Up to Syrian Border

What is needed (and I think likely) is for Russia and Syria to jointly declare Syria's sovereignty and that any forces on or over Syrian territory without express and formal invitation will be considered enemy combatants. Then if incursions occur and they are rebuffed, no one can legitimately complain. Everything will be in accordance with International Law.

Cartalucci suggests that a Russian led international peacekeeping force could be stationed along the Turkish-Syrian border to prevent any further NATO incursions. It's quite possible. Forces from the CSTO countries would be a possibility or perhaps SCO countries which includes China!

Things are moving fast and the stakes are getting higher but I'm sure Russia did not start their intervention (at Syrian Government request) without thinking through the possibility of directly facing off against NATO and without knowing how they will prevail.

Russia has lost two servicemen, a jet and a helicopter but they have gained a 'no-fly zone' with the perfect excuse to bring into Syria the peerless S400 defensive missile system. This has stopped overflights and bombing runs of the Turkish, US and israeli air forces. The US continues to lose with every desperate act of aggression.