Winter Patriot Community Blog

There are two wars being waged in Ukraine. One is by the Kiev Junta Forces (KJF) against the citizens of the Donbas in an effort to drive them out of their home and to kill and terrorize those that remain. This is, of course, one big war crime. The second war is being waged by the Novorossian Armed Forces (NAF) against the invading KJF and their masters in Kiev.

The purpose of Kiev junta's war is to gain (or regain) control of physical territory and resources. That is what is important to psychopaths. Behind the oligarchs in control of Kiev are the bankers of London and New York who control NATO and their member governments. Their big picture aim is to cripple the Russian economy so it doesn't outshine the dying economies of the West and to eventually bring about regime change in Moscow.

The NAF are fighting to completely eliminate the Ukrainian military and the fascist volunteer forces as viable forces that can be used by the junta against all the people of Ukraine.

(picture source) . . . Come on Porky. Just a bit closer . . . .

They aim to bring about freedom for the Novorossians and the chance for the rest of Ukraine to bring about a regime change of their own. This will suit the Russian government in its overall aim of eliminating the bankers from any power over the BRICS nations and eventually eliminate them from any power in the world.

So right now the junta are shelling the population of Novorossia to gain territory and the NAF are setting about systematically killing the KJF. The NAF are much less interested in controlling territory in the short term. They are focused on destroying the KJF and the best place to do that is in the Donbas on their own territory where supply lines are short, where they have the support of the people and where they know the territory intimately. It also frames their war as defensive and not aggressive.

Since abandoning Slaviansk, the NAF have been engaging the KJF away from population centres and, for their part, sparing civilian lives. I mentioned in my previous essay the Mongol tactics used centuries ago in Europe. The effect is to destroy the local lord's military and spare the populace in many cases. I think it is very likely we will see a rerun of these tactics against the KJF who have fortified themselves in Mariupol.

The Russians have been assisting the Syrian govt with advice in repelling the NATO jihadi forces in Syria and will have taken note of the devastation that has resulted from the Syrian govt forces shelling the Syrian towns in which the jihadis have ensconced themselves. Indeed, the jihadis scuttle from town to town in Syria as if to invite the govt artillery down on these towns. The NATO jihadists are inviting the Syrian govt to destroy their own towns. The Russians are very unlikely to advise the NAF to do the same.

In keeping with this, the NAF are very unlikely to shell the city of Mariupol but to lay siege to it and invite the KJF to come out and pursue them and/or to try and break through the encirclement. Meanwhile, it is likely that the NAF will allow humanitarian aid through their cordon but still keep the KJF bottled up there. The ceasefire agreement that Zakharchenko signed has played into this tactic. But more on that below.

Alexander Mercouris, the sharpest observer there is of the mess in Ukraine and Europe, has published an analysis of the meaning of the Minsk ceasefire on his Facebook page. Saker has reprinted it here and saved me the trouble of copying it in full. It is well worth reading.

Alexander makes some legal points that will come into play later on. He also makes the point that the Novorossians are fighting a defensive war and will not march on Kiev. In my previous article I said that the NAF will eliminate the KJF and will be able to “stroll into Kiev”. The emphasis is on “stroll” as there will be no resistance left and that is the main point not whether the NAF end up in Kiev or not. (They may well assist local forces in such places as Kharkov and Odessa to overthrow the remains of the junta officialdom in these oblasts and establish order.) Without the Ukrainian military or any Nazi thugs left to protect them, the oligarchs and their stooges will flee Ukraine leaving the people in a position to fill the vacuum left by the govt – a regime change, which is Moscow's aim in all this.

There is one fly in the ointment, though. The 'rapid deployment force' that was announced at the recent NATO meeting. I believe its purpose is to become a “Fly-in Praetorian Guard” to shore up the junta govt of the oligarchs in the absence of their nazi thugs (or even perhaps against the nazi thugs!). It would be a desperate measure and I'm sure the Russians have foreseen this possibility and have an answer for it – what that might be though, I don't know.

So back to the ceasefire. Is it likely that Zakharchenko conferred with Putin before signing? I would say it is highly likely he did. Does anyone think that the junta thugs or neocon idiots are smarter than Putin or Shoigu?

I must say I was confused by it but then asked myself, “Am I smarter or do I have more information than Vladimir Putin?” “No”, was my answer, of course! So what is going on?

Well, what happened immediately afterwards? The momentum that the NAF had towards Mariupol was broken which Alexei Mozgovoi was quick to complain about. But was that such a bad thing? For one thing, the NAF needed a break to recuperate and replenish its supplies. There were many warnings going around that they were in danger of over extending themselves. A further complaint was that the ceasefire (such as it was) would allow the Kiev govt to consolidate its position.

Almost immediately and predictably, the Kiev regime sent more reinforcements into Mariupol to shore up their position. This was denounced as a blunder by many including Strelkov who intimated that Vladislav Surkov was behind this and that it amounted to an act of treason. But was it a blunder and was it treason?

Going back to the Mongol tactics (as I see them) which have been used to great effect so far against the KJF and the Syrian experience of the Russian military advisers, can we really deduce that the NAF are going to shell Mariupol and fight their way into it? I don't think so. It runs counter to their previous tactics and strategy and it runs counter to their preserving the lives of their fellow Novorossians. So if the NAF are not going to fight their way into Mariupol, does it matter if the Kiev forces there are reinforced? The probable outcome is that the NAF are going to lay siege to Mariupol and leave them there and destroy any junta forces that venture out of the city.

If you are going to lay siege to your opponent's forces in a city, do you want as many of them as possible within the city or do you want half of them outside the city and at your back? I think I would want them all bottled up within Mariupol using the sea as my ally as well. Given this, would it make sense to sign a ceasefire so that the morons in Kiev could send more troops into the trap that is being prepared in Mariupol? Indeed, the signs are that the NAF has now siezed the town of Chervone Pole to the west of Mariupol and are about to seal the KJF's fate. If I'm reading this right, from there the KJF can surrender and be evacuated to Russia (perhaps by sea) or they can die trying to break out.

Again, we have to realise that the prime aim of the NAF is to destroy the KJF and the best place to do that is on Novorossian territory. It also keeps this war a defensive one on the part of the NAF by luring the KJF into their cauldrons rather than pursuing them across Ukraine and suffering major losses, further dividing the Ukrainian population and painting the NAF (and the Russians) as aggressors. Novorossia will become the maw of death and will stand as a warning to anyone ever contemplating invading them again.

(picture source) . . . You ever see a fat man run so fast? . . .

There remains the curious role of Surkov and the attitudes of Strelkov and Mozgovoi. Both Strelkov and Mozgovoi have expressed the desire of marching in Kiev. This does not suit the overall defensive strategy of Moscow but is understandable from a military commanders point of view. It's a ralying call for their troops and if it angers the KJF, so much the better. Alexander Mercouris believes this expressed attitude of Igor Strelkov's was the reason for his dismissal. It may be but I think it may have had other purposes and is incidental, in any case, as he would have had to follow directives from Moscow (or face being without supplies) come the time, as will Mozgovoi.

I still think it is far more likely that Strelkov was relieved as part of the pre-existing plan when the trained Novorossians were ready to deploy with their commanders from Russia into the Donbas. We witnessed a sudden reversal of fortunes at this time which points to a large increase in personnel and strategy with would have included a change in command. So I think Strelkov's expressed desire to march on Kiev was not the deciding factor in the change of command.

Stelkov has indicated that Surkov was involved in the 'betrayal' that was the ceasefire agreement. Surkov has form as a fifth columnist and I have been surprised to learn of his survival within the Russian power structure. I was alarmed to read that he had been in Kiev prior to the Minsk meeting. I think Strelkov may well be right in that Surkov was instrumental in arranging the ceasefire and may well have been acting as a fifth columnist in doing so.

But we have to remember that his form is certainly known to Putin and Shoigu. Could it be that Putin allowed Surkov to act out his piece of treachery and use it against the Kiev regime? Putin was a colonel in the KGB and later was appointed the head of that organization by Yeltsin. He would be only too familiar with double and triple agents and playing them against themselves and their other 'masters'. I think it quite likely that Putin and Shoigu wanted this ceasefire to allow Kiev to place more troops in Mariupol and bottle them up there to take them out of the fight.

When puzzling over the latest moves, I think it is always wise to take into account the fact that Putin (together with his advisors) is indisputably the smartest guy in the room. It is also worth taking into account his history of always acting legally, preserving civilian lives, fighting defensively and focusing on destroying the opponents military capacity; the Georgian military in 2008 and now Kiev junta's armed forces.

(picture source)