Winter Patriot Community Blog

Like a wounded Leviathan, the US and its military is thrashing around causing as much damage as it can with no thought of its impending death except that, “It has to do something . . . . NOW”.

The Leviathan hopes to entangle Iran in its death throws, but Iran will do what it has done for the last twenty years. It will step back, do the minimum it needs to do to defend itself from the US, attack and defeat the US proxies and otherwise give the US the room it demands to undo itself.

You can't go against the Laws of Nature, the Law of Non-aggression, forever and hope to survive. Empires exist solely through coercion and they fall when the coercion no longer works. The corruption promotes incompetence from within and fear of the coerced without is replaced with a determination to end the violence. That moment has come for the US in the Middle East.

The killing of General Qassem Soleimani is the lightning rod for that determination. The days of the US occupation of the Middle East are surely numbered.

The war hawks behind the decision to kill Soleimani and Iraqi government militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis are blatantly attempting to incite a war with Iran and cower the Iraqi government.

The fact that these men were Iraqi and Iranian government officials and were murdered while engaged in official, publicly scheduled, business on Iraqi sovereign territory in broad daylight is outrageous. The significance of this unprecedented arrogance of the US government will not be lost on the governments of many countries around the world, least of all Russia and China.

Now that fear of the US is waning along with its declining image of omnipotence and mental competence, the US is hoping to replace that fear in the hearts of Iraqi's with anger - anger that will cause them to do something stupid. What the US does not want, but what it is going to get, is a cold, calculating determination to be rid of them for good.

That determination is going to be led by the Iranian government through the Quds Force, through the Iraqi government, through the Iraqi military including the PMU's (Popular Mobilization Units).

It is unlikely that the Iraqi Prime Minister (or acting Prime Minister) will formally order the US military Forces to leave Iraq. That would be signing his own death warrant. But what we will certainly see is all effective co-operation with the US Forces cease. The US will be increasingly isolated within Iraq and increasingly the soldiers will be effectively confined to base.

We can expect the Iraqi government factions to pull together with Iran's Qud Forces and unite against the occupying US forces.

Next, the Iraqi military (including the PMU's) will go after the Kurds, Turkmen and any Sunni's or one else tempted to continue to co-operated with the US military.

This will remove the US's proxies and force them to do their own dirty work on the ground. This means increasingly exposing themselves outside of their bases and increasingly becoming targets.

They will have to get used to being stopped and harassed at checkpoints and their mobility generally being hampered – not to mention shot at. Everyone has a gun in Iraq.

Next, further constraints will be imposed through US Air Force jets and helicopters coming under ground fire when taking off and landing.

With ground patrols severely limited and Iraqi government and military co-operation withdrawn, these hit and run attacks against US aircraft will become far more viable and effective.

Russia will provide Iran with more intelligence and weapons, such as the S400 missile defence system, to defend itself from attack.

China will step up infrastructure building and finance with Iran to further integrate it with the One Belt One Road transcontinental transport and trade system and thus alleviate the economic situation for Iranians.

Within a few months, US will become increasingly isolated internationally and the US bases within the US and Syria will cease to be fortresses and quickly become prisons.

And the morons behind the US's aggressive decisions will be left to wonder just what went wrong.